Chronic condition and adult social care projections
In 2017, it is estimated that 253,989 people lived in Southampton and this is expected to grow by 4.8% by 2024 to 266,285. The over 65 population in particular is expected to grow significantly over this period, increasing from 34,781 to 39,810 (a 14.5% increase). This is largely because the increases seen in life expectancy over the last few decades mean that people are living longer. However, lower levels of healthy life expectancy suggest, it is often with long term conditions and an extended period of poor health or disability.
This has clear implications on the demand for health and adult social care services. According to the Department of Health, people suffering from long term conditions represent:
- 69% of health care spend
- 77% of inpatient bed days
- 55% of GP appointments
- 68% of outpatient and ED appointments
An ageing population only compounds this problem as people tend to develop more long term or chronic conditions as they grow older. As illustrated by the chart to right, in 2017, by the age of 45-49 years, over half of Southampton registered patients had at least one chronic health condition; by the age 65-69, over a third have at least three chronic conditions and; by the age 85-89, almost a third have at least 6 chronic conditions. Multi-morbidity (ill health) not only increases with age, but for those residents living in the most deprived areas of the city it appears to be occurring much earlier in life. In fact, the 20% most deprived neighbourhoods in the city have over twice the proportion of residents living with 3 or more chronic conditions by their mid to late thirties, compared to residents living in the 20% least deprived neighbourhoods.
In the context of an ageing population, increases in morbidity (ill health) and a reduction in resources, there is a need to better understand how this could impact on future demand for health and social care services in Southampton. As a result, an analysis was undertaken in 2018 to model and project the number of Southampton residents with chronic health conditions in the future, and how this may translate into demand for local services and in particular adult social care. An overview of this analysis, along with the results can be found in the slide set which can be downloaded below.