Population size and structure

Southampton's population size and structure

Understanding the size and structure of Southampton’s population and how it is changing is vital in estimating population need and for the planning and commissioning of services across the city. Data on Southampton’s population comes from a range of sources, using different methodologies for estimating the size and structure of the population and how this is projected to change in the future. These are summarised below, whilst links to the data and visualisation tools can be found in the resources section at the end of this page.

Residential population estimates

The Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) are produced annually by Hampshire County Council and estimate the size of the local resident population for Hampshire districts as well as Portsmouth and Southampton. These estimates are considered to provide the most robust local estimate of the current and future resident population as they take account of natural change (births and deaths), internal and international migration and known and planned dwelling completions. They also include future dwellings supply based on residential planning applications. Current forecasts run from 2021 to 2028. The SAPF data is available for Local Authorities, wards and Lower Level Super Output Areas (LSOAs), allowing the creation of defined smaller areas or community data.

In May 2023, there was a ward boundary review, which has resulted in an additional ward being added, covering Banister & Polygon. This gives Southampton 17 wards. Other ward boundaries have changed to accommodate this new ward and Bitterne has been renamed Thornhill.

Data presented in this page, where possible, are to these new ward boundaries and totals are a sum of the male and female population of the wards.

Detailed SAPF data, wards map and methodology can be found in the Population dashboard or in the resources section the end of the page.

A summary of the main points is provided below:

• In 2022, the resident population of Southampton was estimated to be 263,769, of which 129,191 (49.0%) were female and 134,578 (51.0%) were male
• Children between the ages 0 to 5 make up 6.5% (17,032) of the population, which is similar to the England average of 6.9% (MYE 2020)
• 18.5% (48,818) of Southampton’s resident population is aged between 16 and 24 years compared to just 10.5% in England. This is largely due to Southampton being a university city and home to approximately 37,800 students
• 14.3% of the population are aged over 65 (37,768 people) which is lower than the national average of 18.5%.
• Bargate ward has a population of 18,821 people or 7.1% of Southampton’s total population
• The new ward of Banister & Polygon has a population of 17,009 people or 6.4% of Southampton’s total population
• The smallest ward, in population terms, is Coxford with a population of 14,321 people or 5.4% of Southampton’s population
• Swaythling (34.3%), Banister & Polygon (33.1%) and Bargate (32.7%) have the largest populations aged 16-24 years reflecting the large student population in Southampton
• The number of dwellings is forecast to increase from 108,775 in 2022 to 118,267 in 2029; an increase of 8.7% (9,492 extra dwellings)
• The largest growth in dwellings is predicted to be in the new ward boundaries is Bargate (5,245 extra dwellings; 65.8%), followed by Bevois (928 extra dwellings; 15.4%) and Banister and Polygon (558 extra dwellings; 7.9%)
• The smallest growth in dwellings is predicted to be in Harefield (53 extra dwellings 0.9%) between 2022 and 2029

More information can be found in the population dashboard and resources section below.

Mid-year population estimates (MYE)

Alternative resident population estimates are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). These are known as the ONS Mid-year population estimates (MYE) and are useful as they provide comparable trend data across the whole country. These estimates are produced annually and are calculated by rolling forward the previous Census results (currently 2011), taking into account natural change (births and deaths) and internal and international migration between 1 July and 30 June each year.

The latest MYE (2020) suggests that Southampton’s population is 252,872 residents of which 123,203 (48.7%) were female and 129,669 (51.3%) were male. It also shows that the resident population of the city is estimated to have grown by 8.5% since 2010; that is an extra 19,787 people. More information on the ONS MYE can be found in the population dashboard and resources section below.

Subnational population projections (SNPP)

These projections take the mid-2018 population estimates, published on 26 June 2019, as their starting point and project the population to 2043. The projected local authority populations for each year are calculated by ageing on the population from the previous year, applying local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the number of projected births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of each local authority.

The latest SNPP data runs from 2018 to 2043 and suggests that Southampton’s population is estimated to be 270,834 in 2043, an increase of 7.1% or 18,038 people. More details can be found in the population change section and in the population dashboard and resources section below.

GP registered population

An alternative source of population data comes from GP practice registers; these provide the number of patients registered with a Southampton GP practice. The registered population differs from the resident population as a person can be registered with a Southampton GP practice but live outside the city, or may live in the city, but be registered with a GP practice outside of Southampton. For this reason, the registered population can be quite different to the resident populations. However, this information is particularly useful for the planning of health services.

NHS Digital collates the registered population at GP practice, Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) level. The data is available by age and gender and is released monthly. In January 2023, there were 316,129 people registered at a Southampton GP, of which 153,352 (48.5%) were female and 162,777 (51.5%) were male. This is 20.8% higher than the estimated resident population (261,729 people). More information is available in the population dashboard and the resources section below.