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Person surrounded by up arrows - PinkPopulation change

Understanding how Southampton’s population will change in future, and how this will affect demand for a range of services, is vital for service planning and commissioning. There are many uncertainties around current and future population numbers. The Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) produced by Hampshire County Council provides the best available estimate of how the resident population of the city will change over the short to medium term (currently up to 2027). In addition, long term population projections (currently up to 2043) are available from the Office for National Statistics.

Local population forecasts

The Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) produced by Hampshire County Council cover Hampshire, the local districts and Portsmouth and Southampton. These figures are based on natural change (births and deaths), internal and international migration and known and planned completions of residential dwellings. The most recently published data is for the 2020 to 2027 period and forecasts that:

  • Southampton’s total resident population is forecast to increase to 275,987 people by 2027, a rise of 6.1% (15,876 people) from 2020
  • Within the city, by ward, the largest growth is predicted to be in Bargate (5,881 people or 23.2%) followed by Bevois (1,859 people or 9.4%). The lowest population growth is Bitterne with a fall of 72 people or -0.5% over the same period
  • The number of dwellings is forecast to increase from 107,695 in 2020 to 114,566 in 2027; an increase of 6.4% (6,871 extra dwellings)
  • The largest growth in dwellings is predicted to be in the wards of Bargate (2,835 extra dwellings; 26.8%), followed by Woolston (829 extra dwellings; 11.6%) and Bevois (823 extra dwellings; 9.3%)
  • The smallest growth in dwellings is predicted to be in Bitterne and Coxford both with an increase of just 1.1% between 2020 and 2027

The older population is projected to grow proportionately more than any other group in Southampton in the next few years. The over 65 population is set to increase by 15.6%, 5,711 people, between 2020 and 2027, with the over 75 population set to increase by 21.6%, 3,808 people. The proportion of the population of working age is steadily declining potentially impacting productivity and the skill pool of the resident workforce. Combined with the decline locally and nationally in birth rates, there is an expected impact in the informal and community care available for the ageing population in the future. Further analysis into how a growing elderly population in the city may translate into demand for health and social care services has been undertaken locally. More details can be found in the population dashboard and in the resources section below.

Population dashboard
Visualisation

Subnational population projections (SNPP)

The 2018 based subnational population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), provides data on the potential future size and age structure of the population in Southampton over a longer timeframe. The latest publication projects the population from 2018 to 2043.

The projections take the ONS 2018 mid-year population estimates as their starting point. The projected local authority populations for each year are calculated by ageing on the population from the previous year, applying local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the number of projected births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of each local authority. Derived local authority fertility, mortality and migration assumptions use estimated values from the five years before the base projection year.

Using these projections the population of Southampton is predicted to rise by 7.1% between 2018 and 2043. This is an increase of 18,038 people from 252,796 people in 2018 to 270,834 people in 2043. The population aged between 15 and 24 is predicted to increase by 4,579 (9.3%) people over the same period. The over 65 population is predicted to increase by 34.9% or 11,705 people from 33,517 in 2018 to 45,200 in 2043. The over 90 population is predicted to rise by 67.8% percent from 1,804 in 2018 to 3,028 in 2043.

Population dashboard
Visualisation

Resources

Population dashboard

The dashboard presents a range of population data to provide intelligence on Southampton's resident and GP registered population to help drive strategic decision making. Data in this dashboard is compiled from a range of publicly available sources. Including Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF), Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYE), Subnational Population Projections (SNPP) and GP Registered Populations.

Population dashboard
Visualisation

Hampshire County Council - Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF)

The Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) are produced by Hampshire County Council and cover Hampshire, the local districts, Portsmouth and Southampton. These figures are based on natural change (births and deaths), internal and international migration and known dwelling completions. They also include future dwellings supply based on residential planning applications. The forecasts run from 2018 to 2025. The SAPF data is available for Local Authorities, wards and Lower Level Super Output Areas (LSOA), allowing the creation of defined smaller areas or community data.

Hampshire County Council Small Area Population Forecasts
Dataset

ONS - Subnational Population Projections (SNPP) for England

The 2018-based subnational population projections provide statistics on the potential future size and age structure of the population in England at region, county, local authority, clinical commissioning group and NHS England region levels. They are used as a common framework for informing local-level policy and planning as they are produced in a consistent way. The projections take the ONS 2018 mid-year population estimates as their starting point. The projected local authority populations for each year are calculated by ageing on the population from the previous year, applying local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the number of projected births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of each local authority. Derived local authority fertility, mortality and migration assumptions use estimated values from the five years before the base projection year.

ONS - Subnational Population Projections for England: 2018-based
Dataset
ONS - Variant national population projections for the UK and subnational population projections and household projections for England: user guide
Report

Predicting demand for services and adult social care in Southampton analysis

In the context of an ageing population, increases in morbidity (ill health) and a reduction in resources, there is a need to better understand how this could impact on future demand for health and social care services in Southampton. As a result, an analysis was undertaken in 2018 to model and project the number of Southampton residents with chronic health conditions in the future, and how this may translate into demand for local services. The slide set below summarises the findings of this analysis.

Predicting demand for services and adult social care in Southampton
Slide set
pptx | 10MB | 23.07.18

Last updated: 03 December 2021