Population change

Population change

Understanding how Southampton’s population will change in future, and how this will affect demand for a range of services, is vital for service planning and commissioning. There are many uncertainties around current and future population numbers. The Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) produced by Hampshire County Council provides the best available estimate of how the resident population of the city will change over the short to medium term (currently up to 2027). In addition, long term population projections (currently up to 2043) are available from the Office for National Statistics.

Local population forecasts

The Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) produced by Hampshire County Council cover Hampshire, the local districts and Portsmouth and Southampton. These figures are based on natural change (births and deaths), internal and international migration and known and planned completions of residential dwellings.

In May 2023, there was a ward boundary review, which has resulted in an additional ward being added, covering Banister & Polygon. This gives Southampton 17 wards. Other ward boundaries have changed to accommodate this new ward and Bitterne has been renamed Thornhill.

Data presented in this page, where possible, are to these new ward boundaries and totals are a sum of the male and female population of the wards.

The most recently published data is for the 2022 to 2029 period and forecasts that:

• Southampton’s total resident population is forecast to increase to 283,587 people by 2029, an increase of 7.5% (19,818 people) from 2022
• Within the city, the largest growth is predicted to be in the new boundary of Bargate (10,585 people or 56.2%)
• The two wards with the lowest population growth are Millbrook and Harefield, both with an increase of 0.4% or 52 extra people in Millbrook and 61 extra people in Harefield
• The number of dwellings is forecast to increase from 108,775 in 2022 to 118,267 in 2029; an increase of 8.7% (9,492 extra dwellings)
• The largest growth in dwellings is predicted to be in the new ward boundaries is Bargate (5,245 extra dwellings; 65.8%), followed by Bevois (928 extra dwellings; 15.4%) and Banister and Polygon (558 extra dwellings; 7.9%)
• The smallest growth in dwellings is predicted to be in Harefield (53 extra dwellings 0.9%) between 2022 and 2029

The older population is projected to grow proportionately more than any other group in Southampton in the next few years. The over 65 population is set to increase by 18.7%, or 7,070 people, between 2022 and 2029, with the over 75 population set to increase by 20.2%, or 3,824 people. The proportion of the population of working age is steadily declining potentially impacting productivity and the skill pool of the resident workforce. Combined with the decline locally and nationally in birth rates, there is an expected impact in the informal and community care available for the ageing population in the future. Further analysis into how a growing elderly population in the city may translate into demand for health and social care services has been undertaken locally. More details can be found in the population dashboard and in the resources section below.

Subnational population projections (SNPP)

The 2018 based subnational population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), provides data on the potential future size and age structure of the population in Southampton over a longer timeframe. The latest publication projects the population from 2018 to 2043.

The projections take the ONS 2018 mid-year population estimates as their starting point. The projected local authority populations for each year are calculated by ageing on the population from the previous year, applying local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the number of projected births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of each local authority. Derived local authority fertility, mortality and migration assumptions use estimated values from the five years before the base projection year.

Using these projections the population of Southampton is predicted to rise by 7.1% between 2018 and 2043. This is an increase of 18,038 people from 252,796 people in 2018 to 270,834 people in 2043. The population aged between 15 and 24 is predicted to increase by 4,580 (9.3%) people over the same period. The over 65 population is predicted to increase by 35.0% or 11,715 people from 33,508 in 2018 to 45,223 in 2043. The over 90 population is predicted to rise by 67.8% percent from 1,804 in 2018 to 3,028 in 2043.