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Person surrounded by up arrows - PinkPopulation change

Understanding how Southampton’s population will change in future, and how this will affect demand for a range of services, is vital for service planning and commissioning going forward. There are many uncertainties around current and future population numbers. Currently, the Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) produced by Hampshire County Council provide the best available estimate of how the resident population of the city will change over the short to medium term (currently up to 2024). In addition, long term population projections (currently up to 2041) are available from the Office of National Statistics.

Population change 2018-2025 - Southampton SAPFLocal population forecasts

The Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) produced by Hampshire County Council cover Hampshire, the local districts, Portsmouth and Southampton. These figures are based on natural change (births and deaths), internal and international migration and known and planned completions of residential dwellings. The most recently published data is for the 2018 to 2025 period and forecasts that:

  • The number of dwellings will increase from 106,237 in 2018 to 113,159 in 2025; an increase of 6.5% (6,922 extra dwellings)
  • The largest growth in dwellings is predicted to be in the wards of Bargate (2,896 extra dwellings; 29%), followed by Woolston (982 extra dwellings; 14.1%) and Bevois (656 extra dwellings; 9.3%)
  • Southampton’s total resident population is will increase to 273,020 people by 2025, a rise of 6.5% (16,561 people) from 2018
  • Within the city, the largest growth is predicted to be in Bargate (5,839 people or 24.2%) followed by Woolston (2,437 people or 15.2%). The lowest population growth is Swaythling with a rise of 105 people or 0.7% over the same period

Southampton’s resident population increased by 23.5% between 1991 and 2018 (ONS MYE), and these estimates suggest that the population will continue to rise. This is not only due to an increased number of planned dwellings, but also because the population is ageing and living longer, which has important planning and resourcing implications for local health and social care services. More information on how long people in Southampton live is available on the life expectancy and mortality pages.

Number of live births - Southampton trend 2008/09 to 2017/18The older population is projected to grow proportionately more than any other group in Southampton in the next few years (see chart above). The over 65 population is set to increase by 16% between 2018 and 2025, with the over 75 population set to increase by nearly 25%. Importantly, the proportion of the population of working age is steadily declining potentially impacting productivity and the skill pool of the resident workforce. It may also have an impact on the informal and community care available to the changing population structure. Further analysis into how a growing elderly population in the city may translate into demand for health and social care services has been undertaken locally. The findings of this analysis can be downloaded from the resources section at the end of this page.

According to the SAPF, the number of 0-4 year olds will increase by 2.0% between 2018 and 2025. However, local monitoring of births at University Hospital Southampton (UHS) reveal that actual live births have fallen by 5.6% between 2014/15 and 2017/18, suggesting that the SAPF methodology may be overestimating fertility in Southampton.

ONS Subnational long term population projections (SNPP)

The 2016 based subnational population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), provides data on the potential future size and age structure of the population in Southampton over a longer timeframe. The latest publication projects the population from 2016 to 2041.

The projections take the ONS 2016 mid-year population estimates as their starting point. The projected local authority populations for each year are calculated by ageing on the population from the previous year, applying local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the number of projected births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of each local authority. Derived local authority fertility, mortality and migration assumptions use estimated values from the five years before the base projection year.

Using these projections the population of Southampton is predicted to rise by 12.3% between 2016 and 2041. This is an increase of 30,800 people from 250,400 people in 2016 to 281,200 people in 2041. The population aged between 15 and 24 is predicted to increase by 6,400 (12.3%) people over the same period. The over 65 population is predicted to increase by 43.4% or 14,400 people from 33,200 in 2016 to 47,600 in 2041. The over 90 population is predicted to rise by nearly 95 percent from 1,800 in 2016 to 3,500 in 2041.

Resources

Population data compendium and tools

Data on Southampton’s changing population, using the Hampshire County Council Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) and the ONS Sub-national Population Projections (SNPP) can be found in the data compendium, which can be downloaded below. In addition, the Southampton population pyramid tool can be downloaded which allows customisable population pyramids to be generated for various geographies within the city, and models how the population profile of the city is likely to change over time.

Population data compendium
Dataset
xlsx | 1MB | 09.08.19
Southampton population pyramid tool
Dataset
xlsx | 277KB | 11.07.19

Hampshire County Council Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF)

The Small Area Population Forecasts (SAPF) are produced by Hampshire County Council and cover Hampshire, the local districts, Portsmouth and Southampton. These figures are based on natural change (births and deaths), internal and international migration and known dwelling completions. They also include future dwellings supply based on residential planning applications. The forecasts run from 2018 to 2025. The SAPF data is available for Local Authorities, wards and Lower Level Super Output Areas (LSOA), allowing the creation of defined smaller areas or community data.

Hampshire County Council Small Area Population Forecasts
Dataset

ONS Subnational population projections (SNPP) for England

The 2016-based subnational population projections provide statistics on the potential future size and age structure of the population in England at region, county, local authority, clinical commissioning group and NHS England region levels. They are used as a common framework for informing local-level policy and planning as they are produced in a consistent way. The projections take the ONS 2016 mid-year population estimates as their starting point. The projected local authority populations for each year are calculated by ageing on the population from the previous year, applying local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the number of projected births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of each local authority. Derived local authority fertility, mortality and migration assumptions use estimated values from the five years before the base projection year. The variant subnational population projections, include a variant based on a 10-year trend of migration data and variants with higher and lower levels of net international migration.

ONS - Subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
Report
ONS - Subnational population projections for local authorities: 2016-based
Dataset
ONS - Variant subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
Report

Predicting demand for services and adult social care in Southampton analysis

In the context of an ageing population, increases in morbidity (ill health) and a reduction in resources, there is a need to better understand how this could impact on future demand for health and social care services in Southampton. As a result, an analysis was undertaken in 2018 to model and project the number of Southampton residents with chronic health conditions in the future, and how this may translate into demand for local services. The slide set below summarises the findings of this analysis.

Predicting demand for services and adult social care in Southampton
Slide set
pptx | 10MB | 23.07.18

Last updated: 26 March 2019